1,000,000 m2

In search of new densities

In our proposal “1,000,000 m2” submitted for the open idea competition for Refshaleøen in Copenhagen - one of the last major development area within the urban periphery of Copenhagen - we wish to raise the question of density. Not as a typically discussed floor-to-area-ratio, but as people-to-hectare. In a global context, the compact city holds great potentials to curb both the climate and biodiversity crises.

The new era of “carbon economy” has ignited the discussion on urban density and “no-growth” by emphasizing the environmental impact of urbanization. If predictions are correct, planet earth will inhabit 10 billion people - 60% living in an urbanized setting by 2050. More people with improved living standards have historically resulted in more houses, roads and infrastructure. The urban footprint of the world is expanding and even in some places thinning out. (Since the mid 1950’s, the total area of cities in the EU has increased by 78% while the population has grown by 33%). This tendency is dramatically challenging the environmental boundaries of the planet.

But higher urban density, if planned with a focus on human scale, daylight and a comfortable microclimate, can contribute to more sustainable cities by reducing carbon emissions associated with transportation and energy use. Compact, walkable and mixed use urban areas with efficient public transportation and energy systems have been identified by the IPCC as key to minimize the carbon footprint related to human activity on the globe.

Reforming housing policies as a driver for carbon reductions

The potential of this is especially evident in Denmark, where the average Dane occupies 60 m2 housing per person. 60% of all Danes lives in detached housing with an average of 153 m2 and only 2,6 person per house. So while our population is aging and birth rates are dropping and more people living alone, there is a urgent need to activate housing and planning policies to create incentives for people to move - both physically and mentally - towards a more compact way of living.

As Regional Copenhagen continues to develop as a center of gravity in the Danish context, predictions made by Boligøkonomisk videnscenter, Copenhagen municipality is expected to grow to 785.000 people by 2040 - approximate 130.000 Copenhageners more than today and 40% of the total expected growth of Denmark. Including the 20 municipalities of greater Copenhagen 70% all expected population growth of Denmark will happen in Copenhagen and it’s immediate periphery.

While this is considered a challenge by some, it holds a great opportunity for the Danish carbon footprint and biodiversity gap if we embrace the compact city. As illustrated by the Reduction Roadmap initiative we need to radically (96%) reduce the carbon footprint of the construction sector to comply with the Paris Agreement. A key to achieve this, is to build less new, and residential construction is the primary typology of new construction in Denmark. We have a task to reduce the need to construct new residential buildings - by reducing the overall area use per person while supporting a more agile housing market by providing more small residential typologies, more opportunities to share, making it easier to transform large households to smaller ones and to convert commercial building to residential buildings. And at the same time make it unfeasible to demolish perfectly fine and healthy buildings.  In other words - There is a need to stimulate market incentives to reform residential occupancy and adaptive reuse.

In search of new densities

The compact city holds inherent potentials of achieving this. The average Copenhagener occupies about 42 m2 per person (30% below national average), and with a majority of new construction expected to happen within this region, there is an opportunity to lower this even further by introducing much more small and compact living typologies in the Copenhagen context (and market) by regulating municipal frameworks and local planning.

In our proposal for the open competition on Refshaleøen “1,000,000 m2” - we wish to discuss the topic of density - not as only as a “floor-area-ratio” (FAR) - but as “person-per-hectare”. Our contribution aims to raise the awareness of people density - not only to meet the need of Copenhagen - but potentially the total growth of Denmark within the existing urban footprint without the need for greenfield (and blue) development.

The former industrial island of Refshaleøen is one of the last larger industrial re-development areas in the Copenhagen municipality. And one of the last “empty” areas within the urban periphery. The window is closing, if we aim to use our planning framework to regulate the people-to-ha-ratio in Copenhagen.

To illustrate the volume of this potential we made a simple math exercise. If every new expected Copenhagener (ca. 132.000 by 2040) were to occupy an average of 42 m2, this means a need for an extra 5,5 million m2 of housing in Copenhagen. If all future housing in Copenhagen alternatively was planned for 30 m2 per person, this would reduce the need for new housing by almost 30%. This could be lowered further if global tendencies for commercial vacancies starts to have the same impact in the Danish market, and more effort (and regulation) would stimulate incentives for converting vacant commercial buildings into compact living.

In the total building stock of Copenhagen we would provide room for more and smaller households that potentially would offer Copenhageners better suited apartment sizes and living budgets, a more agile market while reducing the carbon footprint for construction in total.

An island for 25,000 Copenhageners

While we love the vastness, emptiness and industrial monumentality of Refshaleøen, we have a responsibility to raise the population density within city borders and around existing and planned public transportation and energy infrastructure. In the context of Copenhagen context, we propose to formulate an allocation principle based on the predicted population growth, while using the planning framework to reduce the residential area per person.

Historically 80% of construction activity in Copenhagen is happening within defined “Urban Development Areas – UDA’s”. Looking forward this will result in 105.000 people to be divided roughly between the North harbor, Jernbanebyen, Amager North-East, Valby south and Refshaleøen.

In our proposal we suggest allocating approximately 1/5 of the total growth of the city to Refshaleøen - 25,000 people.

With an average of 30 m2 per person this outlines 800.000 m² housing on Refshaleøen. With an additional 200.000 allocated to other functions to create a mixed use area. In total this sums up to 1 mio m2, including the existing industrial heritage buildings already on the island. We claim, this leaves enough open space for both nature and culture to co-exist, and enough compact critical mass to ensure a living, attractive and mixed use neighborhood. How do we balance both people and planet in one of the last major development areas of Copenhagen? How can cultural legacy, affordability, nature, health and high density co-exist?

Our 1,000,000 m2 is a contribution to the long list of dilemmas the future regulation of Refshaleøen will have to to balance - and reflect in the future competition brief. We wish to inspire both politicians, administration along landowners to reflect on the new development not only as building mass, but people mass, as a key to meet future environmental and social needs instead of basing commercial predictions on statistics of the past.

Thank you for the acknowledgement.